What’s going to happen in Northern Ireland?
Prime Minister Theresa May is negotiating a coalition minority government with the only party that will join her after the implosion of the Conservative majority in the U.K. after June 8’s snap elections — Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, or DUP.
The DUP have been behind many acts of terror in Northern Ireland over the decades and represent a form of right wing politics more at home in the GOP than in the UK.
As an American who spent parts of his childhood in Ireland in the 1980s and 90s, I find the idea of the DUP in a position of real power to be incredibly concerning. There’s nothing like watching news from a war zone only hours away through childhood to give you some perspective on the violence of civil war — and to provoke skepticism toward any deal for short term political gain that could imperil peace in the long term.
The alliance between the Conservatives and the DUP could threaten the Good Friday Agreement, the 1998 Northern Ireland peace deal which turns 20 next year.
The Republic of Ireland’s outgoing Taoiseach Enda Kenny expressed his doubts over the move with a cautious statement, tweeting that he had expressed to May his “concern that nothing should happen to put Good Friday agreement at risk” because of the implication of a coalition government.
The DUP only joined the power sharing government in 2006, having initially opposed the peace deal. The hard line approach from the pro-British unionists makes forming a coalition government a tricky proposition for May as it could have negative ramifications on the peace deal.
The deal requires both Ireland and the UK to act as neutral co-guarantors in the process. Northern Ireland’s power sharing agreement relies on both the British and Irish governments to remain nominally outside of the fray, effectively forcing republicans and unionists to work together without being reliant on help from the more powerful states.
“The idea that the British Government could be taking sides having been the guarantor of the Good Friday agreement and the subsequent peace agreements,” said Labour’s Yvette Cooper, “I think is really troubling.”
By joining with the DUP, the Conservative government will find it difficult to present the UK as a neutral co-guarantor. The prime minister is already in negotiations with the DUP for power sharing, the practical meaning of which will be that the British government will include the hardline party that stood in the way of the peace process two decades ago.
The Prime Minister’s office put out a statement Sunday framing the proposed coalition as necessary for the UK.
“We will welcome any such deal being agreed,” the statement read, “as it will provide the stability and certainty the whole country requires as we embark on Brexit and beyond.”
Whatever the future holds for the UK government, let’s hope it keeps long term peace in mind while negotiating a short term coalition.
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