On Raising Concerns About GOP Turn Out and the Democrats' Campaign Strategy
A rejoinder to some critiques
When I wrote last night about my concerns that GOP turnout in the wake of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death increased President Donald Trump’s chances of re-election, I expected it could upset some people.
What I didn’t expect was interpretations of that post which held that by noting the possibility of a Trump win—or at least a closer race—I was doing everything from claiming the Democrats will lose in November to trying to replay the primary.
So a few points here:
Yes, Democrats donated a lot of money to Senatorial candidates in the hours since Ginsburg’s death, and that surge in cash to candidates with a shot at unseating GOP incumbents, and also Amy McGrath, indicates enthusiasm for the party.
What’s unclear is if this translates into motivated voters in important states. While the same can be said for the GOP base, an infrastructure to turn out voters on the issue of the courts already exists on the right.
I’m skeptical that the Democrats have a similar infrastructure as the GOP at boosting turnout on the issue and I don’t think donations to Senate candidates necessarily indicate a surge in previously non-activated voters is going to happen.
While it’s just one poll, a recent Florida Atlantic University survey showing undecided voters favoring Trump over Biden by a 4 to 1 split should be concerning—and in my mind at least for now outweighs Senate donations given we know the undecideds are in an important state.Pointing out, in this context, the Biden campaign’s reported deficiencies in getting out the vote and motivating people is not helping Trump.
It’s a warning.
I’m not the first person to bring it up. There’s been extensive reporting on this topic, from outlets like The Washington Post and Politico, among others.
Here’s TIME on Biden’s Michigan presence:The reason [Don] Sabbe can’t find a dedicated Biden campaign field office is because there aren’t any around here. Not in Macomb County, the swing region where Sabbe lives. It’s not even clear Biden has opened any new dedicated field offices in the state; because of the pandemic, they’ve moved their field organizing effort online. The Biden campaign in Michigan refused to confirm the location of any physical field offices despite repeated requests; they say they have “supply centers” for handing out signs, but would not confirm those locations. The campaign also declined to say how many of their Michigan staff were physically located here. Biden’s field operation in this all-important state is being run through the Michigan Democratic Party’s One Campaign, which is also not doing physical canvassing or events at the moment. When I ask Biden campaign staffers and Democratic Party officials how many people they have on the ground in Michigan, one reply stuck out: “What do you mean by ‘on the ground?'”
That doesn’t inspire confidence.
Finally, I am not trying to replay the Democratic primary in favor of Bernie Sanders in some misguided attempt to prove he had the right strategy with respect to door knocking.
The primary’s been over for months. Inasmuch as I was favorable toward Sanders I was no ideologue and didn’t find the fact that his campaign failed to be too surprising given the full power of the party establishment coalescing around Biden.
However, if your takeaway from the primary was that voter outreach, door-knocking, and motivated volunteers on the ground is a losing electoral strategy, then I have to say I think you learned the wrong lesson here.
None of these points are incompatible with a Biden victory, obviously. Nor are they claiming that Democrats won’t also be energized by a court fight. And they certainly don’t mean that Trump still won’t get blown out of the water on Election Day.
But it’s hard to argue that these issues shouldn’t be concerning to anyone who wants Trump out of office.