How Ted Cruz Could Give Obama a SCOTUS Victory

2016 is shaping up to be one of the most politically polarized election years in recent memory. Not only are both major parties facing primary revolts from within, the Republican dominated Senate and President Obama are about to face off over the Supreme Court vacancy created by the death of Antonin Scalia. The former may well influence the latter. Ted Cruz could give Obama his third Supreme Court appointment.

[T]he president has nominated Merrick Garland, a moderate and well-respected jurist from the DC Court of Appeals, to replace Scalia. Garland’s record is slightly to the left of center. As I noted here:

While Merrick Garland is certainly an uninspired and rote pick for the Supreme Court, the Parhat ruling- specifically related to the release of information and the need to prove guilt for detention- provides some small reason to hope for the left.

Garland has faced predictable resistance from Congressional Republicans. Despite GOP attempts to frame the opposition as rooted in principle or precedent, the truth is clear- the Senate doesn’t want to hand Obama a victory of any kind. Nowhere has this been more obvious than when Democratic Senator Al Franken called Orrin Hatch out on the circular reasoning of his opposition.

As Franken made clear, the GOP is completely willing to vote on Garland’s nomination- if they lose in November. Because in that case, the party may face a far more left leaning candidate from Hillary Clinton (or Bernie Sanders). But there’s a possibility they’d vote on Garland earlier- and out of their own self interest. Let’s have fun and imagine how that could happen.

[I]magine the following hypothetical scenario. Donald Trump falls short of the magic number necessary to wrap up the GOP nomination. The contest goes to the convention. The result is the party chooses Ted Cruz and spurns Trump.

This is honestly where it gets a little murky. The question of Cruz’s eligibility to run for the presidency is still up in the air. He was born in Canada, but argues that because his mother was a US citizen when he was birthed, that qualifies as natural born.

That position has been upheld by one court, but Trump has the resources and pettiness to sue Cruz in as many states and jurisdictions as he needs to in order to get just one decision to reject Cruz’s eligibility. The Cruz campaign, and the RNC, would appeal the decision- all the way to the Supreme Court, if necessary.

Okay, so- if this happened, and if the decision on appeal was in Trump’s favor, then SCOTUS would either rule in favor of one or the other or deadlock and send it back down for review. In the latter case, Cruz’s eligibility may be compromised enough that any victory he wins (outright electoral or Congressional) would be challenged, leaving Obama in office for the foreseeable future.

There would only be one option to avoid that scenario: fill out the court with Garland on the condition that the nominee votes in favor of Cruz. Of course, such a blatantly partisan and corrupt move would stir outrage, but it would allow the GOP the chance- however slim- to place their favored nominee in the White House in 2017.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how Ted Cruz could- hypothetically- give Obama a Supreme Court victory to cap off his term in office.